CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-28T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17008/-1
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-31T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Saturday, May 29, 2021 8:34 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-05-31T13:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 4 max_estimated_peak_K: 6 probability_of_arrival: 15 :Issued: 2021 May 31 1241 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# WEEK 1065 from 2021 May 24 SOLAR ACTIVITY --------------- Beta-gamma regions NOAA 2824 and 2826 produced 15 C flares from May 26 to 29. The GOES X-ray flux background varied between B1 level at the start and the end of the week and up to B4 level in the middle of the week. The brightest flare was a C9.4 flare released by region 2824, which peaked at 23:13 UT on May 28. This flare was associated with a dimming detected by Solar Demon and a CME towards the West first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 23:12 UT, with an estimated speed around 840 km/s and a half cone angle of about 50 degrees. A proton event started around 0h UT on May 29, related to the C9.4 flare and associated CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached a maximum of about 16 pfu around 03:20 UT, and proton flux levels went below the 10 pfu threshold around 05:50 UT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron fluence were near or above the moderate level threshold from May 24 to 26.Lead Time: 95.77 hour(s)
Difference: 47.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-05-29T12:34Z
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